Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.594925 3.914352 4.282752 4.748359 5.336113 6.077241 7.128546
2025-02-02 3.286158 3.713274 4.250746 5.011224 6.132382 7.893602 11.454834
2025-02-09 3.026418 3.490648 4.104916 5.038102 6.574843 9.491917 18.652490
2025-02-16 2.852413 3.340849 4.012586 5.094140 7.061686 11.639875 45.442440
2025-02-23 2.648250 3.122638 3.786367 4.884201 6.982496 12.470723 194.338087
2025-03-02 2.539221 3.022345 3.714956 4.906539 7.364841 15.296486 NaN
2025-03-09 2.439355 2.924447 3.633148 4.891522 7.663023 18.796236 NaN
2025-03-16 2.330384 2.804572 3.504440 4.768970 7.661350 21.174514 NaN
2025-03-23 2.285650 2.773781 3.510503 4.894831 8.359931 34.671125 NaN
2025-03-30 2.186289 2.655972 3.366852 4.709383 8.110999 36.309461 NaN
2025-04-06 2.092398 2.541944 3.222370 4.507471 7.764084 34.792395 NaN
2025-04-13 2.023070 2.461519 3.127926 4.396056 7.669318 39.218257 NaN
2025-04-20 2.000918 2.452560 3.152942 4.535850 8.461229 276.853297 NaN
2025-04-27 1.995360 2.468248 3.220393 4.779250 9.863157 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.955879 2.429183 3.190532 4.804057 10.450349 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.923122 2.398742 3.173112 4.854737 11.246783 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.859543 2.317177 3.060207 4.664726 10.644949 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.828691 2.286120 3.035665 4.684986 11.259591 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.795404 2.249753 2.999222 4.671368 11.695216 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.751568 2.195021 2.926707 4.560061 11.435381 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.738879 2.189443 2.943015 4.674369 12.877040 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.692341 2.127865 2.853350 4.505836 12.051226 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.645317 2.064598 2.759021 4.321568 11.108274 NaN NaN